作者/Author(s): Jessica Chen Weiss 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Affairs 

日期/Date: 09/16/2024 

關鍵字/Keywords: 外交、美中、戰略競爭


摘要：
美國領導層開啟對中長期戰略競爭，這種沒有最終目標的做法遭到民眾大力抨擊。雖然兩黨對中國所構成的威脅有所共識，但他們對威脅程度的意見分歧，導致決策者應對措施變得複雜。未來美國政府應謹慎行事，避免與中國發生不必要的戰爭。 
反射性敵意 
  • 共和黨指責拜登政府對中政策過於軟弱，稱中國是生存威脅，美國可以採取更具敵意的方式迫使中國屈服。然而，對中國採取激進政策只會增加不必要熱戰的可能性。 
  • 拜登政府則基於共同目標基礎，旨在保護基於規則的國際秩序。然而，他們阻撓北京的傾向壓倒了共同目標和推動美國利益的努力，使當前美中戰略競爭變成一場零和競爭。 
  • 中國與美國一樣，正在減少對方強制或顛覆自身公共領域的影響力，但這也降低了雙方健康競爭和共存的前景。 
  • 美中兩國都應該明白，可信的嚇阻和保證對兩個大國的共存至關重要。雖然美中陸續重啟外交努力，並有所克制，但兩國之間缺乏有益的交流，兩方敘事都以「引領未來」為主體。 
  • 如果美國和中國繼續追求零和敘事並做好準備應對衝突，那麼他們對戰爭的恐懼也許真的會實現，並削弱戰術保證的可信性。雖然外交不是當前局勢的萬靈藥，但可以減少雙方過度誤解，阻止關係進一步惡化。 
 
Summary: 
The US leadership is under fire for seeking an open-ended competition with China without an ultimate goal. Although there is a bipartisan consensus on the dangers that China poses, they disagree on the extent of the threats, complicating policymakers' responses. Future US administrations should thread the needle carefully to avoid an unwanted war with China. 
Reflexive Hostility 
  • Republicans accused the Biden administration of being too soft on China, going as far as to call China an existential threat and claim the US could use a more hostile approach to bring China down to its knees. Yet, using an aggressive policy on China only raises the prospect of an undesired hot war. '
  • The Biden administration, based on a sense of common purpose, aimed to protect the rules-based international order. However, the inclination to impede Beijing overpowers initiatives to work toward common goals and advance US interests, making the current US-China strategic rivalry a zero-sum competition. 
  • Like the US, China is reducing the exposure of its public sphere from US coercion and subversion, reducing the prospects of healthy competition and coexistence. 
  • The US and China should understand credible deterrence and assurance are significant for the two great powers to coexist. Despite renewed diplomacy efforts and restrains, there is a lack of beneficial exchanges between the US and China while "leading the future" dominates the narratives in both countries. 
  • If the US and China continue pursuing zero-sum narratives and prepare for a conflict, they will only fulfill their fears of war and undermine the credibility of tactical assurances. Although diplomacy is no panacea for the current situation, it could reduce exaggerated misperceptions on both sides and stall their downward-spiraling relations. 
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