作者/Author(s): Agathe Demarais 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Policy 

日期/Date: 09/19/2024 

關鍵字/Keywords: 制裁、經濟、歐盟、中國 

摘要：

美國高機率會以經濟制裁威脅中國，阻止其入侵台灣，甚至可能拖著其他先進經濟體加入制裁行動。然而，如果中國研判這些制裁帶來的損害並不大，它將會繼續入侵行動。在七國集團（G7）中，中國與歐盟的貿易順差最大，歐盟對中國的制裁威脅比美國更具危險性，因此比起美國，中國應該更擔心歐盟的動作。 

  • 西方的金融制裁不太可能對中國造成危險，因為北京成功地在跨境貿易中推廣人民幣和 CIPS（跨境支付系統）。此外，在金融制裁方面，美元比歐元更具影響力。
  • 西方在技術和關鍵材料出口管制對中國的效果可能不大。
  1. 中國正在加速發展本土先進晶片製造業，並在入侵台灣之前積極縮小與西方的技術差距。 
  2. 歐盟在技術領域並沒有對中國具顯著優勢的利基市場。 
  3. 如果西方試圖切斷中國的能源供應鏈，俄羅斯和伊朗會出手相救。 
  • 由於歐盟是中國出口的主要目的地，限制中國商品進入歐盟市場是最具有力度的嚇阻手段。 
  1. 歐盟無法對中國出口實施全面禁令，因為許多歐洲公司依賴中國提供中間產品和機械設備。 
  2. 然而，歐盟可以限制非關鍵消費品，如電子和基礎商品，來打擊中國經濟。如果七國集團共同協調進口禁令，中國可能會失去高達20%的出口收入。 
  3. 其中，歐盟貿易限制的影響力極大，因為它對中國的進口仍在成長，歐盟仍依賴中國的技術輸入，德國在中國有大量的外國直接投資。這與美國尋求與中國脫鉤的策略形成對比。
  • ​​​​​​​總之，歐盟對中國的貿易制裁可能具備更大影響力。然而歐盟各國對中國的經濟互賴程度不同，對歐盟的制裁措施可能有不同意見。 
Summary: 
The US will likely threaten China with economic sanctions to deter an invasion of Taiwan, possibly dragging other advanced economies to join its sanction measures. However, if China perceives the damages from the sanctions are not painful, it will proceed with the invasion. Among the G7, China should be worried more about the EU than the US because it ran the largest trade surplus with the bloc, making the EU sanctions threats more dangerous than the US. 
  • Western financial sanctions are unlikely dangerous to China because Beijing successfully promoted the use of the Renminbi and CIPS in cross-border trade. Further, the US dollar is more influential than the Euro when it comes to financial sanctions. 
  • The West's technology and critical materials export control may be ineffective against China.  
  1. China is gaining pace in developing an indigenous advanced chipmaking industry. China would probably narrow the technology gap with the West before it invades Taiwan. 
  2. The EU does not have a niche area that has a substantial technological advantage over China. 
  3. Russia and Iran would come to China's rescue if the West tried to cut China's energy access. 
  • Since the EU is the primary destination for Chinese exports, limiting the access of Chinese goods into the EU market is the most credible deterrent. 
  1. The EU could not use a blanket ban on Chinese exports because many European firms relied on China for intermediary inputs and machinery. 
  2. However, the EU could target non-critical consumer goods, such as electronics and low-end goods to damage the Chinese economy. If the G7 coordinated their import bans, China could lose up to 20 percent of export income. 
  3. The EU trade restriction will have a great weight because its imports from China are still growing, it still relies on China for technological inputs, and Germany has a large FDI in China. It is in contrast to the US which seeks to decouple from China. 
  • In short, the EU's trade sanctions on China could be more influential to stop a Taiwan invasion. However, members of the bloc may disagree on the EU's measures because they have different degrees of economic interdependence with China. 

 
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