作者/Author(s): Susannah Patton and Herve Hemahieu 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Affairs 

日期/Date: 09/13/2024 

關鍵字/Keywords: 區域秩序、軍事、亞洲


為何雙極化對亞洲而言是好事 
  • 亞洲的雙極格局對該地區和美國都很有利。美國長時間維持的軍事優勢足以彌補目前缺點，而且美國在潛艇戰和遠程打擊能力方面占據優勢。 
  • 雖然中國在某些技術領域取得進展，但美國還是全球最重要的創新中心。美國同時還享有美元霸權、豐富的能源資源和有利的人口趨勢，這些中國亟欲解決的挑戰。
  • 美國在亞太地區的行動也防止主要衝突熱點和偶發灰色地帶衝突升級演變成全面戰爭。亞洲國家是應該擔心區域衝突可能增加，但他們也必須知道如果美國退出亞洲，局勢只會更加危險。 
  1. 中國與周邊許多鄰國都有領土爭議，因此無法建立一個穩定以中國為中心的亞洲秩序。 
  2. 如果沒有美國的安全保障，日本、韓國和澳洲可能會發展核武器。
  3. 整體而言，美國在亞太地區的存在能有效穩定局勢，防止區域各國鋌而走險尋求核武安全保障。 
  • 亞洲各國行為體可以根據自身的國家利益在中國和美國之間保持中立，在兩強之間進行避險，避免過度依賴某一大國，偶爾也能充當地區危機調停者。 
  • 美國應該擔心有一些逐漸與中國交好的中立國家，甚至要阻止他們與中國過從甚密。美國應該加強與這些國家的接觸，讓這些國家繼續保持不結盟狀態。
 
Why Asian Bipolarity is Good 
  • Bipolarity in Asia is good for the region and the US. Generally, the US's enduring military advantages overcome its flaws for now, especially since the US has the upper hand in submarine warfare and long-range strike capability. 
  • Although China improved in some technologies, the US remains a global innovation center. Moreover, the US enjoys dollar dominance, an abundance of energy resources, and favorable demographic trends, but China is struggling in these aspects. 
  • The US presence in Asia-Pacific also kept major flashpoints and occasional gray-zone clashes from turning into an all-out conflict. Although Asian countries should be worried about the increased clashes, they must recognize that it will be more dangerous if the US retreats from Asia.
  1. China also cannot establish a stable China-centric order in Asia because it has multiple territorial disputes with its neighbors. 
  2. Japan, South Korea, and Australia may develop nuclear weapons without the US's security guarantees. 
  3. Overall, the US presence in the Asia-Pacific stabilizes the region and prevents regional governments from going down a dangerous path to security seeking. 
  • Asian state actors could remain neutral and choose between China and the US depending on their national interests. It allows them to hedge their risks of over-dependence on one power and act as intermediaries between the two antagonistic powers. 
  • However, the US should be worried that some neutral countries are drifting into China's orbit and should prevent it. The US should increase engagement with these countries to keep them non-aligned.
回上層