作者/Author(s): Susannah Patton and Herve Hemahieu 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Affairs 

日期/Date: 09/13/2024 

關鍵字/Keywords: 區域秩序、軍事、亞洲


摘要：
亞洲地區的區域秩序有很多種不同說法：有人認為中國是不可阻擋的區域霸主、有人認為美國才是霸主而中國則是可以遏制的弱勢力量、甚至有一種說法稱亞洲是多極化地區，其中重要的國家行為者可以相互制衡中國追求區域霸權的努力。對美國的對華政策單位而言，正確了解亞洲地區的權力平衡態勢至關重要。根據美國洛伊研究所的亞洲國力指數報告，亞洲長久以來大多維持雙極格局，美國和中國作為競爭對手共存，通過不同的影響力手段，讓美國能夠確保其關鍵的區域利益，維持區域和平，保護國家經濟利益。然而，美國必須認識到自身優勢和侷限性，才能保持穩定的現狀。 

亞洲多極化的迷思 
  • 許多人希望澳洲、印度和日本能成為亞洲地區大國，但它們的軍事、經濟和技術能力遠遠不及中國。而且如果沒有美國作為亞洲的平衡力量，這些國家也無法制衡中國。 
  • 因此，美國正在深化亞太同盟體系，增強地區盟友抗衡中國的能力。美國通過軍事演習、對話和協議成功深化其與亞太國家的安全夥伴關係，有效提升盟友威望、軍事以及遏制中國的能力。 
  • 雖然美國做了很多努力，但其美國盟友的軍力微薄，整體能力未能有效提升。此外，美國也缺乏對大規模衝突的準備，在盟友進行協調時也存在障礙。 
  • 最有可能發生的結果是亞太地區主動發起與美國重新合作的倡議，旨在將華盛頓綁在亞太地區，這種作法反而不是美國政策想要的結果。這也凸顯了美國非常清楚知道亞洲並非多極化，並且承認其夥伴國家沒有足夠的決定性能力來抗衡中國。美國仍然是亞洲安全架構的核心大國，這種承諾更像雙邊安全保證，而不是北約的集體防禦承諾。 
Summary: 
There are various interpretations of the regional order in the Asia region: China as an unstoppable regional hegemon; the US as a hegemon and China as a containable weak force; and multipolarity where primary actors could check China's pursuit of regional hegemony. A correct comprehension of Asia's balance of power is crucial for the US formulation of China policies. According to Lowy Institute's Asia Power Index, Asia has a durable bipolarity where the US and China coexist as peer competitors with different means of influence, enabling the US to secure its critical regional interests, maintain regional peace, and protect its economic interests. However, the US must acknowledge its strengths and limitations to keep the stable status quo. 
The Myth of Asian Multipolarity 
  • Although many hoped Australia, India, and Japan could be regional great powers, their military, economic, and technological capabilities were far off China. Further, they cannot restrain China without the US as a balancing force. 
  • Consequently, the US is upgrading its Asia-Pacific alliance networks to enhance its regional allies' capabilities to impede China. The US succeeded in deepening security partnerships with Asia-Pacific countries through military exercises, dialogues, and agreements, giving it improved prestige, military access, and capabilities to contain China. 
  • Despite the US efforts, there is no effective increment in overall capabilities because the militaries of US allies remain minuscule. Further, it is a fact that the US is unprepared for a large-scale conflict, especially when there are obstacles in coordination with its partners. 
  • It is more likely that Asia-Pacific initiated the initiatives for renewed cooperation with the US to shackle Washington in the region, not a result of the US's policies. Therefore, it shows that the US understood Asia is not multipolar and acknowledges its partners do not have decisive capabilities to resist China. The US remains central in Asia's security infrastructure based on bilateral security guarantees, unlike a NATO-like collective defense commitment.
 
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