作者/Author(s): Mrugank Bhusari 

網站來源/Source: Atlantic Council 

日期/Date: 08/22/2024 

關鍵字/Keywords: 經濟、貿易 


摘要：
美國於2018年對一系列中國商品實施關稅，旨在減少對中國的貿易逆差，並懲罰中國不公平的貿易行為。然而，美國的貿易逆差依然存在，全球商品貿易逆差也在擴大。不論年底美國總統選舉結果如何，美國都可能會祭出更高關稅，以應對中國生產的高附加價值和複雜產品。 
  • 美國2018年的關稅措施中針對了中國的中間財和資本設備。2025年將會有更多國家與美國有相似的煩惱，並針對最終財採取關稅行動，以保護本國的工業和供應鏈。 
  • 雖然雙邊貿易逆差可能只是宏觀經濟動態的反射鏡，並不一定代表情況很危險，但持續的大規模逆差代表進口商品競爭力強，國內損失的就業機會，可能無法與其他新興貿易產業就業機會畫上等號。 
  • 在COVID-19期間，中國大量出口電氣機械和辦公設備。雖然這些數字近年略有下降，但北京已將重點轉向高附加值商品。國內需求疲弱意味著中國可以出口這些商品，同時減少對進口的依賴。 
  • 如果這種情況持續下去，全球對中國的貿易逆差將會一直擴大。因此各國政府正在努力保護其產業免受中國產品衝擊。 
  • 有些新興市場在中國快速成長期間，透過向中國供應重要商品而大量獲益。然而這次他們可能無法複製同樣做法，因為中國會保留低附加值製造業供應鏈，不會讓其他國家接手。這些國家無法再將中國轉型為高附加值供應鏈所需的材料出口至中國。 
  • 已開發國家擔心中國的高科技產業加入將損害國內原本的就業機會。他們正在制定政策，努力阻止中國的傾銷和補貼行為。 
  • 然而，各國對貿易的優先順序與看法不同，因此可能不會協調出一致對中的因應措施。 
  1. 發達經濟體希望保護其在高附加價值產業的市占率，因為他們在這些產業擁有區域及全球優勢。 
  2. 新興市場可能會搭上西方友商的便車，但仍希望保留來自中國的供應鏈投入。 
Summary: 
The US implemented a series of tariffs against Chinese goods in 2018, aiming to reduce the trade deficit with China and address unfair Chinese trade practices. However, not only did the US trade deficit continue, the aggregate global goods deficit widened. Regardless of the results of the upcoming US presidential elections, the US will most likely introduce more tariffs as China pursues manufacturing more high-value-added and complex production goods. 
  • The US targeted Chinese intermediate inputs and capital equipment in the 2018 tariffs. By 2025, more countries will share similar concerns with the US and target final consumer products to protect their domestic industries and supply chains. 
  • Although bilateral deficits may simply reflect macroeconomic dynamics and are not dangerous, continuous large and exacerbating deficits could indicate employment lost to more competitive imports may not be equally offset by employment in new tradable industries. 
  • During the COVID-19 pandemic, China exported large amounts of electrical machinery and office equipment. Although these numbers dropped a bit in recent years, Beijing shifted its focus to high-value-added goods. Weak domestic demand means China could export these goods while reducing the need to import them.
  • If the situation persists, it would increase the aggregate global trade deficit with China. Therefore, governments are trying to protect their industry from the flood of Chinese goods. 
  • Some emerging markets benefited by supplying China with critical commodities during its rapid growth. However, they may not gain this time because they could not provide the materials needed for China's transition to a high-value-added supply chain. China would keep its production of low-value-added manufacturing rather than allow other countries to take over. 
  • Developed economies are worried that China's entry into high-tech industries will undermine their employment. Therefore, they are developing policies to stop Chinese dumping and subsidy practices. 
  • However, different trade priorities mean there may not be a coordinated response. 
  1. Advanced economies are keen to protect their market shares in high-value-added industries where they have regional and global advantages. 
  2. Emerging markets may ride the Western friendshoring wave, but hope to retain supply chain inputs from China. 
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