作者/Author(s): Christopher Vassallo 

網站來源/Source: War on the Rocks 

日期/Date: 08/09/2024 

關鍵字/Keywords: 制裁、經濟 


摘要：
如果美國真的對中國實施制裁，中國經濟將劇烈動盪。為了減緩美國制裁帶來的影響，中國正逐步增加人民幣的使用率，不過成效很有限。中國官方同時也逐步減少其美元儲備量，讓美國很難有效制裁北京。中國的非官方美元儲備（或稱影子儲備），儼然成為抵禦對手金融制裁的重要屏障，美國需要針對中國各行各業採取更廣泛的制裁行動，而這些制裁的反作用力也會影響美國公司。雖然美元仍然是主流貨幣，但中國的影子儲備將削弱美國實施有效制裁的能力。
  • 雖然目前中國使用美元的交易仍很多，但其官方持有的美元儲備已經逐漸減少。專家們認為北京可能會把美元從中國人民銀行轉移到其他金融機構，形成影子儲備。影子儲備是習近平提出的金融安全概念之一，避免美國可能會對北京實施金融制裁。
  • 美國在執行金融制裁時採用「邊際制裁傾向」原則。如果制裁對象對全球宏觀經濟穩定的影響太大，美國不太可能真的祭出制裁行動。例如西方制裁了俄羅斯的央行儲備，但並未凍結俄羅斯天然氣工業股份公司（Gazprom）和俄羅斯聯邦儲蓄銀行（Sberbank）的美元儲備。中國認為其影子儲備計畫能提供類似的應對措施，有效抵抗美國的制裁。
  • 北京效仿冷戰時期的 「歐元市場 」措施，將其美元儲備轉移到中立的歐洲銀行。這使得貿易得以繼續，同時避免其持有的美元被美國冷凍。 
  • 影子儲備系統的不可預測性帶來了幾個優勢： 
  1. 比起官方儲備，影子儲備在中國銀行體系中較難被精準發現。
  2. 就算美國找到中國的影子儲備，可能也會因為擔心制裁的反作用或金融戰爭升級，而猶豫是否要進行制裁。 
  • 中國認為世界貿易的主導地位才能帶來真正的地緣經濟力量。因此，北京可能會在關鍵產業中利用其槓桿能力對抗美國。此外，建立美元影子儲備和推動人民幣國際化可能會加強北京抵抗美國制裁的能力，降低制裁對經濟的影響力。 
Summary: 
China is insulating its finances from potential US sanctions by increasing the use of the Renminbi, with limited success. However, China is steadily reducing its official US dollar reserve holdings, which makes it difficult for the US to sanction Beijing. China's unofficial reserve dollars, or shadow reserves, are a strong bulwark against hostile anti-China financial sanctions because the US would need to target a wide range of the Chinese economy and the sanctions may backfire against its firms. Although the US dollar may remain a dominant currency, the Chinese shadow reserves would impede the US's ability to implement sanctions effectively. 
  • Although China conducts more trade in dollars today, its official holdings of dollar reserves have shrunk. Experts assumed Beijing created shadow reserves by diverting the dollars from the People's Bank of China to other financial institutions. The shadow reserves are part of Xi's concept of financial security as the US may target Beijing for financial sanctions.
  • The US applied a "marginal propensity to sanction" principle when executing financial sanctions. If the target is too influential to the global macroeconomic stability, it is unlikely the US will sanction the entity. One example is the West sanctioned Russia's central bank reserves but did not freeze the dollar holdings of Gazprom and Sberbank. China expects its shadow reserves would provide similar countermeasures against the US sanctions. 
  • Beijing emulated the Cold War "eurodollar market" measure, where it transferred its dollar-denominated reserves to neutral European banks. It allows the continuation of trade while avoiding its dollar holdings from being seized by the US. 
  • The unpredictability of the shadow reserves system offers several advantages: 
  1. It is difficult to pinpoint across the Chinese banking system than the PBOC official reserve holding. 
  2. Even if it is found, the US may hesitate to sanction the entity because it may backfire or escalate financial warfare. 
  • China believes dominance over the world trade offers it real geoeconomic powers. Therefore, Beijing may use its leverage in critical industries against the US. Further, the creation of shadow dollar reserves and internationalization of the Renminbi may fortify Beijing's insulation against US punishments and render sanctions ineffective. 
 
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