作者/Author(s): Jude Blanchette 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Affairs 

日期/Date: 08/13/2024 

關鍵字/Keywords: 外交、經濟
 

樂觀主義者

  • 在經歷悲觀初期之後，中國學者更加相信這場戰爭沒有產生災難性的後果。西方的制裁反而引起一波反擊和反制裁，俄羅斯沒有完全被孤立。
  • 中國不必付出高昂成本支持俄羅斯，甚至創造了良性成長趨勢。中國學者對俄羅斯承受西方制裁和重振其軍工複合體的能力特別感興趣。
  • 中國學者也認為，西方對烏克蘭的持續支持會分裂其國內輿論和聯盟凝聚力。 
碰碰運氣 
  • 中國學者對這場戰爭的評估非常穩健且公正。然而他們低估了這場戰爭對北京政府實際造成的損失，特別是中歐關係的惡化。
  • 歐洲人對中國暗中支持俄羅斯感到失望。北約甚至將中國稱為俄烏戰爭「決定性的推動者」。歐洲企業也認為未來三年內中歐關係不會改善。 
  • 西方制裁並沒有摧毀俄羅斯經濟，但卻加速了全球經濟的分裂。中國更積極追求技術獨立，而西方企業則因擔心直接和二次制裁選擇退出中國市場。 
  • 雖然美國早已警告中國繼續援助俄羅斯的可能後果，但中國仍加大支持俄羅斯。無論美國總統選舉結果如何，美國都可能會加強制裁那些支持俄羅斯的中國公司。 
焦慮的中國  
  • 在最近的分析中，中國學者認為中國將保持強大，但國際環境不利於中國成長，甚至會變得更加敵視中國。
  • 中國將持續從俄烏危機中汲取教訓，以應對未來的台海問題。雖然俄烏之間尚無定論，但中國不能低估西方的決心，且需要準備好面對更不穩定的局勢。 

 

Optimists 
  • After a pessimistic start, Chinese scholars are more confident that the war has not produced cataclysmic outcomes. Instead, the Western sanctions brought a wave of backlash and countersanctions, preventing a total isolation of Russia. 
  • China also avoided paying high costs in support of Russia and even created a benign trend for its growth. Chinese scholars are particularly interested in Russia's ability to endure Western sanctions and reinvigorate its military-industrial complex.
  • China also believes that the continued support for Ukraine divides the West's domestic public opinion and alliance cohesion. 
Hit and Miss 
  • Chinese scholars' evaluation of the war is solid and fair. However, they discredited the actual costs to the Beijing government, especially the degradation of China-Europe relations.
  • European policymakers are disappointed that China covertly supports Russia. NATO even branded China a "decisive enabler" of Russia's war efforts. European businesses also viewed China-Europe relations will not improve in the next three years. 
  • Western sanctions did not break the Russian economy, but it hastened the fragmentation of the global economy. China accelerated its pursuit of technological independence, while Western companies are fleeing the Chinese market due to fears of direct and secondary sanctions. 
  • Although the US warned China of the consequences of continued assistance for Russia, China doubled down its gamble to support Russia. The US would likely increase its sanctions on Chinese companies that support Russia's war effort regardless of the results of the upcoming US presidential elections. 
Anxious China 
  • In recent analyses, Chinese scholars perceived that China would remain strong, but the international environment is inconducive for its growth and will become more hostile. 
  • China will draw lessons from the Ukrainian Crisis to prepare for a Taiwan showdown. Although it is inconclusive, China must not underestimate the West's resolve and may need to prepare for a more precarious situation. 
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