作者/Author(s): Derek Grossman 

網站來源/Source: Nikkei Asia 

日期/Date: 07/15/2024 

關鍵字/Keywords: 嚇阻

摘要：

菲律賓和越南與中國在南海存在領土爭端。然而，他們在處理與中國船隻的衝突時採取了不同的方法。 

  • 馬尼拉選擇更加公開透明，揭露中國在南海的敵對行為。相較之下，越南則決定保持沉默，私下協商爭端以避免局勢升級。 
  • 兩種方法都不是最佳解。中國甚至增加使用灰色地帶侵略菲律賓和越南。馬尼拉和華盛頓正在考慮援引《美菲共同防禦條約》。越南則持續模仿中國在部分海域建造人工島嶼的動作，並將其軍事化。 
  • 與推動中國和平崛起和負責任大國形象的前任領導人不同，習近平的行為更具威權性，對西方抱有更多懷疑。北京也比較不重視國際聲譽，在符合中國利益的情況下，無視國際法和規範。中國政策制定者在其作為《聯合國海洋法公約》（UNCLOS）的簽署國情況下，還提倡應該根據北京日益增長的影響力修訂該法。 
  • 菲律賓和越南仍然以中國在乎其國際聲譽為前提，持續調整他們的應對方法，但這前提似乎已經不適用。 
  • 羞辱中國的行為雖然說服了理念相近的盟友加強與菲律賓合作，但習近平為了保護中國在南海的主權，早已犧牲國家聲譽。 
  • 越南則認為中國會為了保護其聲譽而低調解決爭端，但這種做法也沒用。 
  • 與其羞辱或保持沉默，菲律賓和越南應該制定更具實際和綜合性的策略。菲律賓應考慮啟動美菲共同防禦條約的部分條款，或修訂該協議，以應對中國的灰色地帶戰術和相關區域。 
  • 越南雖然沒有與美國建立正式的安全夥伴關係，但可以邀請美國海岸巡防隊或海軍進行聯合巡邏和演習，表明對抗中國的集體決心。 
 
Summary: 

The Philippines and Vietnam have territorial disputes with China in the South China Sea. However, they have different approaches to handling clashes with Chinese ships. 
  • Manila chooses a more open and transparent, exposing Chinese hostility in the South China Sea. In contrast, Vietnam decided to be quiet and negotiate disputes privately to avoid escalation. 
  • Despite contrasting approaches, neither approaches prevail. China even increased its use of gray zone aggression against the Philippines and Vietnam. Manila and Washington are considering invoking the US-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty. Vietnam mimicked China in building and militarizing artificial islands on some maritime features. 
  • Unlike his predecessors who promoted China's peaceful rise and a responsible stakeholder, Xi acted more authoritarian and suspicious of the West. Beijing also neglects its international reputation and is comfortable violating international law and norms if they fit China's interests. Chinese policymakers also advocated to revise the UNCLOS, in which China is a signatory, according to Beijing's growing influence. 
  • The Philippines and Vietnam are still tailoring their methods by assuming China cares about its reputation, which is no longer relevant. 
  • Shaming China convinced like-minded allies to enhance cooperation with the Philippines, but Xi sacrificed China's reputation to protect its sovereignty in the South China Sea. 
  • Vietnam assumes China would resolve disputes quietly to protect its prestige, but it does not work. 
  • Instead of shaming or keeping quiet, the Philippines and Vietnam should devise more substantive and comprehensive strategies. The Philippines should consider activating part of the US-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty or revising the agreement to counter Chinese gray zone tactics and applicable regions. 
  • Vietnam does not have a formal security partnership with the US. However, it could invite the US Coast Guard or Navy for joint patrols and exercises to signal collective resolve against China.  
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