作者/Author(s): Jude Blanchette and Hal Brands 

網站來源/Source: Center for Strategic & International Studies 

日期/Date: 07/25/ 2024 

關鍵字/Keywords: 灰色地帶戰爭 


摘要：
中國應該無法在不入侵的情況下佔領台灣。然而，美國和台灣不應低估其他行動的可能性，必須為此做好準備。
 

情境一：斬首行動  

  • 有些台灣領導人已經遭遇過暗殺行動或企圖，據稱是北京策劃。
  • 這凸顯了台灣政治韌性的風險，例如新當選的領導人安全性不足，或交接程序的法律明確性不足。 
  • 北京可能會利用台灣的憲法弱點，製造政治危機，左右對中國有利的政治局勢。
  • 然而，如果暗殺企圖失敗，中國的陰謀就會曝露出來。即使成功，中國也不能保證行動順利，其他政府可能還是會懷疑和懲罰中國。

情境二：封鎖 

  • 自2022年以來，北京發起封鎖演習，以表達對台灣特定政治事件的不滿。 
  • 封鎖行動可以測試美國的風險承受能力，擾亂美台關係，同時向台灣人表明中國能夠控制進出台灣的交通條件。 
  • 封鎖是一種模糊的國際侵略行為，因此中國有一定的操作空間，讓美國及其盟友反應過程複雜化，有效避免直接軍事對抗。
  • 中國擁有龐大的海警和飛彈部隊能執行封鎖行動。在西太平洋地區，中國軍事力量比台灣和美國更有優勢。
  •  中國的封鎖行動突顯了台灣作為一個島國固有的弱點，相對依賴進口食品、能源和其他重要資源。 
  • 然而，美國及其合作夥伴可能會報復中國的封鎖行動，並增加台灣的國際支持。此外，封鎖行動在迫使一個國家放棄獨立現況方面的紀錄並不佳。

Summary: 

China may not be capable of taking Taiwan without an invasion. Yet, the US and Taiwan should not discount the probability of actions short of invasion and must prepare for them. 

Scenario 1: Decapitation Strike 

  • Some Taiwanese leaders already experienced assassination attempts, purportedly masterminded by Beijing. 
  • It indicates risks to Taiwan's political resiliency, namely insufficient security around Taiwan's elected leadership and legal clarity on the line of succession.
  • Beijing might exploit Taiwan's constitutional vulnerabilities to create a political crisis or sway the political situation favorable to China. 
  • However, if the assassination attempt fails, it would expose China's conspiracy. Even if it succeeds, China cannot guarantee it will be smooth or avoid suspicion and punishment from other governments.

Scenario 2: Quarantine 

  • Since 2022, Beijing launched quarantine exercises to show its displeasure with specific political events in Taiwan.  
  • A quarantine could test the US's risk tolerance and potentially trouble US-Taiwan relations while signaling Taiwanese that China could control the terms of traffic in and out of the island.
  • China could complicate the US or its allies' responses and avoid direct military confrontation because a quarantine is an ambiguous act of international aggression.
  • China is capable of a quarantine scenario due to its large coast guard and missile force. China is also militarily advantageous over Taiwan and the US in the Western Pacific. 
  • A quarantine highlights Taiwan's inherent vulnerabilities as an island nation that depends on imports for food, energy, and other critical resources. 
  • ​​​​​​​However, the US and its partners may still retaliate against China's quarantine while increasing international support for Taiwan. Further, quarantines have a poor record of forcing a country to surrender its independence. 
 
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