作者/Author(s): Jude Blanchette and Hal Brands 

網站來源/Source: Center for Strategic & International Studies 

日期/Date: 07/25/ 2024 

關鍵字/Keywords: 灰色地帶戰爭 
 

摘要：

修正主義者可能會使用其他手段來掩飾他們的意圖，並製造不確定性或不同的脅迫行動，以較小代價提高勝利的可能性。美國與盟友專注防止台灣發生戰爭，但他們也需要嚇阻中國的切香腸戰術。 
 

假設 

  • 中國並未放棄吞併台灣的目標，可能會使用或發展一系列工具迫使台灣屈服。因此，美國、盟友和台灣應該探索所有可能的攻擊方式。
  • 中國更希望在國際反彈不大的情況下統一台灣。因此，它會在統一台灣與全球野心之間取得平衡。
  • 中國希望讓美國的行動變得更複雜，或阻止國際對台灣的支持。如果中國能夠阻礙美國有效的政治或軍事干預，可能有更好的機會迫使台灣屈服成為事實。 
  • 中國希望以最不暴力的手段吞併台灣，將實際和經濟損失減到最低，最好能脅迫台北接受政治協商方案 。
  • 中國不急於一舉吞併台灣。它會強迫台北進行政治談判，或逐漸消磨台灣的決心和美國的信譽，以達成最終的統一目標。 

香港的教訓？ 

  • 香港的案例可能提供一些教訓，但也有部分限制。
  • 中國可能會強迫台灣實行類似香港「一國兩制」的政治方案，以減少經濟方面的附帶傷害。當香港爆發抗議時，中國沒有派遣解放軍進入香港，而是利用官僚和法律工具來控制香港自治權，並讓其他國家行為者的報復行動變得更複雜、更窒礙難行。香港的情況凸顯了中國偏好使用法律戰和切香腸戰術來改變戰略格局。
  • 然而，在香港問題發生前，香港作為中國的法理領土早已長達二十年，這讓中國有充足的法律途徑來限制香港政治自由，並使用非軍事手段來鎮壓反對意見，這些作為不適用於兩岸。
 

Summary: 

Revisionist actors may use other means to disguise their intentions and increase the probability of victory without much cost by creating uncertainty or using different coercive actions. The US and its allies are focusing on preventing war over Taiwan, but they also need to pay attention to deter China's salami-slicing tactics.

Assumptions

  • China has not abandoned its goal of annexing Taiwan and may use or develop a range of instruments to capitulate the island. Therefore, the US, its allies, and Taiwan should explore all potential angles of attack. 
  • China prefers to reunify Taiwan with little international backlash. Therefore, it would balance its aims between reunifying Taiwan and other global ambitions. 
  • China would want to complicate the US actions or prevent international support for Taiwan. If China could impede effective US political or military intervention, it could have better chances of accomplishing a fait accompli.
  • China hopes to annex Taiwan with less violent means to minimize physical and economic damage, preferably coercing Taipei to accept a political settlement.
  • China is not urgent in pursuing annexation in a single move. It would coerce Taipei into political negotiations that would lead to its final aim of unification or gradually erode Taiwanese resolve and US credibility. 

Lessons from Hong Kong? 

  • The case of Hong Kong may offer some lessons but with some limitations.
  • China may force a political akin to Hong Kong's "one country, two systems" on Taiwan to reduce collateral damages, especially on the economic front. China refrained from sending the PLA into Hong Kong when protests broke out. Instead, China used bureaucratic and legal instruments to control Hong Kong's autonomy and complicate other state actors' retaliation. Hong Kong's situation shows China's preference for lawfare and salami-slicing to change the strategic landscape. 
  • However, Hong Kong was already China's de jure territory for two decades before troubles arose. It gives China legal channels to restrain Hong Kong's political freedom and non-military instruments to quell opposition, which does not apply to Taiwan. 

 
 
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