作者/Author(s): Andrew Taffer 

網站來源/Source: War on the Rocks 

日期/Date: 07/26/2024 

關鍵字/Keywords: 海上、國際政治 


維權與維穩  
  • 中國的南海戰略在維權與維穩之間保持平衡，維權是為了捍衛其利益並推進其近海聲索權，而維穩是為了維持有利於中國崛起的區域安全環境。 
  • 然而這兩種作法有部分相互矛盾。維權有可能會破壞區域穩定，促使鄰國站邊美國，而且中國的競爭對手可能會破壞中國的維穩行動，讓中國付出更多的戰略代價。因此，中國會選擇與無法對其造成重大戰略成本的對手發生衝突，在面對對那些可能對其造成更高戰略成本的對手時，中國會表現出克制。如果中國的對手現在已經付出了高昂的代價，就不太可能對中國造成進一步的損害。 
  • 這個邏輯也適用於目前的情況。如果中國仍處於灰色地帶，而美國不介入，菲律賓對中國造成戰略成本的能力較低。中國對越南保持克制，是因為中越衝突只會造成更大的損失。菲律賓已經對中國造成了高昂的聲譽成本，而且菲律賓與美國緊密結盟，因此缺乏實質性的平衡成本。此外，越南與中國共享陸地邊界，這對中國的維穩構成更大的威脅。 
影響
  • 美國需要在南海加強對菲律賓的嚇阻能力，削弱中國灰色地帶侵略的信心。 
  • 中國的東南亞競爭對手應提高其威脅中國或使中國付出戰略代價的能力。
  • 美國應分析東南亞國家威脅或對中國施加成本的能力，逐步增加與潛在國家的合作。
  • 美國應制定方法來對付低層次和灰色地帶的侵略。 
  • 分析人士應仔細研究維穩和維權在中國南海政策中的影響，以便為其政府制定更好的建議。 

Weiquan (維權) and Weiwen (維穩) 
  • China had balanced its South China Sea claims based on Weiquan, defending its interests and advancing its offshore claims, and Weiwen, maintaining a favorable regional security environment conducive to its rise.  
  • Yet, these narratives are contradictory. Weiquan risks destabilizing the region and pushing neighbors closer to the US. At the same time, China's rival claimants could impose strategic costs on China by damaging Weiwen. Therefore, China would opt to escalate with adversaries that are less able to impose strategic costs on it while showing restraint on rivals that could inflict higher strategic costs. If the rival has already imposed high costs now, it is unlikely to inflict further damages on China. 
  • Applying the logic to the current situation, the Philippines is less capable of inflicting strategic costs on China if China remains in the gray zone and the US does not intervene. China is restrained towards Vietnam because it would lose more. The Philippines already imposed higher reputational costs on China and lacks meaningful balancing costs because it aligns closely with the US. Further, Vietnam shares land borders with China, which poses more threat to China's Weiwen.  
Implications 
  • The US would need to bolster deterrence for the Philippines in the South China Sea and confidence in undermining China's gray zone aggression. 
  • China's Southeast Asian rivals should increase their capabilities to threaten or impose strategic costs on China. 
  • The US should analyze the capabilities of Southeast Asian countries in threatening or imposing costs on China and gradually increase partnerships with prospective countries. 
  • The US should devise methods to deal with low-level and gray-zone aggressions. 
  • Analysts should scrutinize the implication of Weiwen and Weiquan in China's South China Sea policies to devise better recommendations for their governments. 
 
回上層