作者/Author(s): Andrew Taffer 

網站來源/Source: War on the Rocks 

日期/Date: 07/26/2024 

關鍵字/Keywords: 海上、國際政治


摘要:
中國在南海領土爭端中對菲律賓採取侵略態度,而在與越南的類似問題上則相對克制。菲律賓和越南對中國施加戰略成本的能力差異可能解釋了這些差異。 

五種可能性 
  • 中國對聲索國採取胡蘿蔔與棒子並用的方式,防止他們採取集體行動,避免同時面對多重危機。然而,中國對越南表現克制,對菲律賓卻表現敵意的原因仍不明。 
  • 中國可能使用灰色地帶衝突主張南海主權,同時避免與其他聲索國開戰。中國對菲律賓進行掠奪並非難事,因為這會使華盛頓對美菲共同防禦條約的回應變得更加複雜。 
  • 雖然中國和越南互不信任,但兩國同屬共產主義,在防止雙邊關係惡化上有共同利益。因此,中國對越南比較克制 
  • 中國認為美菲同盟比非結盟的越南更具威脅性。然而,菲律賓在第二湯瑪斯淺灘(仁愛礁)的存在對美國而言更像是一種負擔 
  • 最弱的解釋是中國試圖分裂美菲同盟以獲得戰略優勢。支持這一觀點的證據很少,因為無論美菲關係如何變化,過去三十年裡中國的強硬態度一直在增加。 
 
Summary: 
China is aggressive towards the Philippines in their South China Sea territorial dispute while relatively restrained in similar issues with Vietnam. The differences between the Philippines and Vietnam to impose strategic costs on China could explain the differences. 

Five Possibilities 
  • China uses a mixture of rewards and punishments on claimants to prevent them from taking collective action and avoid multiple crises simultaneously. Yet, it is unknown why China showed restraint toward Vietnam and hostility toward the Phillippines but not vice versa. 
  • China may use gray zone conflict to assert its claim in the South China Sea while avoiding war with other claimants. China could predate the Philippines easily by complicating Washington's responses to the US-Philippines mutual defense treaty. 
  • Although China and Vietnam are distrustful of each other, they share communist roots and share a common interest in preventing the deterioration of their bilateral relations. Therefore, China is more restrained toward Vietnam. 
  • China perceives the US-Philippines alliance as more threatening than the nonaligned Vietnam. However, the presence of the Philippines in the Second Thomas Shoal is more of a liability to the US. 
  • The weakest explanation is China's attempt to divide the Philippines-US alliance and gain a strategic advantage. There is little evidence to support this argument as China's assertiveness has increased over the past three decades regardless of the changes in the US-Philippines ties.