作者/Author(s): Giovanni Legorano 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Policy 

日期/Date: 07/12/2024 

關鍵字/Keywords: 經濟、制裁


摘要：
七國集團（G-7）決定將沒收的俄羅斯資產當成貸款給烏克蘭，但這可能導致仍在俄羅斯經營的西方公司為資助烏克蘭買單。 
  • 自俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭以來，許多西方企業退出了俄羅斯市場或減少業務。有些企業因為官僚障礙或退出成本過高而繼續留在俄羅斯。 
  • 然而自七國集團做出決定以來，俄羅斯政府開始了下列的報復行動：  
  1. 威脅沒收試圖撤離的企業的資產 
  2. 拖延西方公司出售給當地管理者的過程，使其變得複雜 
  3. 對出售給俄羅斯買家的西方國家資產徵收強制性折扣和退出稅 
  4. 加大西方企業在俄利潤轉移回總部的難度。 
  • 俄羅斯政府還批評七國集團的決定不符合國際法。 
  • 目前還不知道西方在扣押俄羅斯資產後會如何資助烏克蘭，但在俄羅斯結束戰爭並將烏克蘭的損失匯回之前，這些資產將一直被凍結。
  • 歐洲持有約2060億美元的俄羅斯資產，歐洲企業因而成為俄羅斯報復的主要目標，對美國的影響倒是還好。此外，俄羅斯將報復那些對俄羅斯經濟影響較小的企業。 
  • 歐洲銀行最容易受到俄羅斯報復和美國次級制裁的影響。因此，歐洲中央銀行要求這些銀行制定清晰的退出俄羅斯的策略。但實際操作並不容易，這些銀行同時受到歐盟和俄羅斯法規約束。
 
Summary: 
The G-7 decided to use confiscated Russian assets as a loan to Ukraine, but the decision may cause Western companies still operating in Russia to pay for the bill for funding Ukraine. 
  • Since Russia invaded Ukraine, many Western businesses exited the Russian market or reduced their operations in the country. Some remained due to bureaucratic obstacles or the cost of exiting was higher than remaining.
  • However, since the G-7 decision, the Russian government retaliated by: 
  1. Threatening to seize the assets of businesses that tried to leave: 
  2. Delaying the sale of Western firms to local managers or complicating the process 
  3. Implementing a mandatory discount plus exit tax on assets for Western countries sold to Russian buyers 
  4. Making it harder for Western businesses to transfer their profits made in Russia back to their headquarters. 
  • The Russian government also criticized the G-7 decision of not adhering to international law. 
  • Although it is unknown how the West would finance Ukraine after seizing Russian assets, it would remain frozen until Russia ended its war and repatriated Ukraine's losses. 
  • Europe holds around 206 billion US dollars worth of Russian assets, making European businesses the prime target of Russia's retaliation, not the US. Further, Russia would target businesses that would cause less disruption to the Russian economy. 
  • European banks are the most vulnerable to Russian retaliation and US secondary sanctions. Therefore, the European Central Bank asked the banks to have a clear exit strategy from Russia, which was difficult because they were also bound by Russian regulations. 
 
回上層