作者/Author(s): Lauren Barney and Aaron Glasserman 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Affairs 

日期/Date: 06/13/2024 

關鍵字/Keywords: 外交 


摘要：
雖然胡塞武裝對紅海船隻的襲擊影響了中國的全球貿易和經濟，但中國似乎沒有像美國那樣積極阻止這些襲擊。中國的無動於衷引起了人們對其中東戰略的關注。專家們認為中國可能正擴大其對阿拉伯世界的影響力，並在不承擔軍事干預成本的情況下成為全球南方國家的擁護者。有些人甚至認為，中國利用與伊朗持續貿易的方式支持胡塞襲擊，削弱美國主導的國際秩序。然而，為了實現上述目標，中國需要一個穩定的中東，這與美國干預該地區的目標類似。
 

高風險的生意 

  • 紅海的動盪會加劇中國目前不確定的經濟狀況。胡塞武裝的襲擊迫使船隻改道好望角，運輸時間和燃料成本持續增加，威脅到中國在中東的供應鏈。中國大多靠海運來運送高價值的出口商品，胡塞武裝的襲擊將擾亂中國的經濟增長，出口商品極易受到價格衝擊的影響。
  • 雖然中國有足夠的替代方案來管理其食品和能源進口。但長期來看，海運中斷可能會危及中國的能源和食品安全，這些商品的價格和供應非常容易受到全球任一個區域危機影響。
  • 中國在紅海經營著幾個重要港口，因此胡塞武裝的襲擊也會危及中國在該地區的經濟利益
  • 中東是中國經濟參與和清潔能源轉型援助的關鍵區域。因此確保紅海的穩定符合中國的國家利益。
  • 紅海問題也暴露了北京在中東軍事存在上猶豫不決的心態問題。雖然解放軍海軍在紅海地區有相當大的存在，負責加強中國作為地區大國的地位，但中國不願部署海軍來保護商船或反擊胡塞武裝的襲擊。如果襲擊事件增多，中國政府可能不得不直接通過海軍進行干預，但這也會使中國在該地區陷入複雜的軍事糾紛中。

Summary: 

Although Houthi attacks on ships in the Red Sea affect China's global trade and economy, China seems to do little to stop the attacks, unlike the US. China's inaction raises crucial about its Middle East strategy, where experts suggest China may be expanding its influence in the Arab world and becoming a champion of the global South without shouldering the costs of military intervention. Some even argue that China supports Houthi attacks by continuing trade with Iran to fracture the US-led international order. However, to achieve the aims mentioned earlier, China needs a stable Middle East, similar to the US's goal of intervening in the region. 
 

Risky Businesses 

  • ​​​​​​The tumultuous Red Sea exacerbates China's currently uncertain economic position. Houthi's attacks endanger China's supply chains in the Middle East by forcing ships to redirect through the Cape of Good Hope, increasing shipping times and fuel costs. As China relies on maritime shipping to deliver its high-value exports, the attacks disrupt China's economic growth and make the exports highly vulnerable to price shocks.
  • Although China has sufficient alternatives to manage its food and energy imports, the maritime disruption could imperil China's energy and food security in the long run because the price and supplies of these commodities are susceptible to crises wherever they happen.
  • Houthi attacks also jeopardize China's economic interests around the Red Sea because China operates several critical ports in the region.
  • The Middle East is a key area for China's economic engagement and assistance in clean energy transition. Therefore, China has a vested interest in ensuring the stability of the Red Sea.
  • The Red Sea also exposes Beijing's indecision about its military presence in the Middle East. Although the PLA Navy has a considerable presence in the region to reinforce China's status as a regional power, China is reluctant to deploy them to protect commercial ships or counter Houthi attacks. If the attacks increase, Beijing may be compelled to intervene directly through its navy, but it would also put China into a complex military entanglement in the region.
     
 
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