作者/Author(s): Alexander Gabuev 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Affairs 

日期/Date: 06/14/2024 

關鍵字/Keywords: 外交
 

北京的自身利益 

  • 北京希望推進和平倡議，並試圖破壞西方的努力。 
  • 北京認為瑞士和平峰會將陷入僵局，因為烏克蘭的要求很高，而將烏克蘭的條件強加給普丁是不切實際的。因此這給了中國一個外交和促成和平的空建，因為中國可以將俄羅斯拉上談判桌。 
  • 如果中國成功調解停火，將提高其在國際秩序中的地位，並在俄烏之間提出對中國更有利的條件。 
殘酷的現實 
  • 雖然中國對俄羅斯有壓倒性的影響力，同時對任何談判都有影響力，但中國可能不會主導談判。 
  1. 烏克蘭和俄羅斯都沒有表現出停止戰鬥的跡象，雙方都相信自己佔據上風。
  2. 烏克蘭和俄羅斯不太可能就某些領土地位或西方在烏克蘭的軍事介入達成一致。 
  3. 中國與烏克蘭的西方夥伴關係不和，是因為中國試圖破壞瑞士和平會議，導致西方夥伴不信任它。而且美中之間的緊張關係在雙方都不願意讓步時，將進一步阻礙和平談判。
  4. 中國缺乏促成重大和談的經驗。斡旋失敗會降低習近平的信譽，因此中國寧願袖手旁觀。 
  • 然而如果沒有中國的參與，西方國家就無法在敘利亞問題上取得進展。 

Beijing's Self-Interests 
  • Beijing hopes to advance its peace initiative and tries to sabotage Western efforts. 
  • Beijing expects the peace summit in Switzeland would end up in a deadlock because of Ukraine's maximalist demands and the impracticability of imposing Ukraine's petition on Putin. Therefore, it gives China a chance to lead a diplomatic effort and broker peace because it is can bring Russia to the negotiation table. 
  • If China succeeds in mediating a ceasefire, it would elevate its position in the international order and could dictate the terms according to its interests. 
The Harsh Reality 
  • Despite having overwhelming leverage over Russia and influence over any talks, China may not lead the negotiations. 
  1. Ukraine and Russia did not show signs for stopping their fight, believing they have the upper hand over another. 
  2. It is unlikely Ukraine and Russia could agree over the status of certain territories or the military involvement of the West in Ukraine. 
  3. China is having turmultuous relations with Ukraine's Western partners and is mistrusted by them after trying to sabotage the Swiss conference. Moreover, China's tension with Ukraine's principal benefactor, the US, would further hamper the peace negotiations especially when both sides are reluctant to step down. 
  4. China is inexperienced in brokering major peace talks. Failure of mediation would degrade Xi's prestige, and therefore, China would rather stay on the sidelines. 
  • Yet, without China's involvement, the West could not stop the Ukrainian Crisis and China would continue to profit from the conflict.  
 
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