作者/Author(s): Alexander Gabuev 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Affairs 

日期/Date: 06/14/2024 

關鍵字/Keywords: 外交 


摘要：
當中國派遣外交官前往烏克蘭，討論與俄羅斯進行和平談判的可能性時，北京與莫斯科之間的「無上限夥伴關係」即將結束。然而中國拒絕參加澤倫斯基在瑞士舉行的和平峰會，因為俄羅斯沒有參加，也沒有任何議案可供辯論。雖然中國缺乏經驗，但對俄羅斯有足夠的影響力，在推動俄烏和平談判也處於優勢地位。然而中國持續阻礙俄烏之間和平談判的可能性，特別針對西方主導的倡議。 
「無上限夥伴關係」的限制 
  • 中俄關係包含安全考慮、資源和技術相互依賴，以及同在聯合國安理會內的意識形態相似性，對北京來說具有極大重要性。
  • 然而，中國與俄羅斯的關係也有侷限性。中國的經濟和技術增長嚴重依賴西方市場。因此，中國政府小心謹慎，避免觸犯華盛頓的紅線。
  • 中國和俄羅斯找到了繞過美國制裁、加強經濟聯繫的方法。 
  1. 他們找到了願意為雙方貿易提供便利的中間人。 
  2. 北京和莫斯科加強了必要基礎設施，促進第三國能源運輸。 
  3. 中國和俄羅斯還指定了免受美國制裁的專門銀行，同時依賴空殼公司維持金流。 
  • 雖然美國威脅制裁北京，大多數中國企業也遵守了美國的要求，但這對阻止中俄貿易的影響力有限。 
Summary: 
When China sent diplomats to Ukraine to discuss the possibilities of a peace negotiation with Russia, it seemed that the Bejing-Moscow "no limits partnership: was coming to an end. However, China declined to join Zelensky's meeting to discuss proposals for ending the war in Switzerland because Russia was not at the summit, nor were any motions open for debate. Despite the lack of experiences, China has a leverage over Russia and is in the pole position to facilitate peace negotiations for ending the Ukrainian Crisis. However, China had ulterior motives for impeding any peace talks, especially Western led initiatives.

The Limits of a "No Limits" Partnership 
  • China-Russia relations are of utmost significance for Beijing due to security concerns, mutual resource and technology dependence, and ideology similarities within the UNSC. 
  • Yet, there are limits to China's ties to Russia. China depends heavily on Western market for its economy and technology growth. Thus, Beijing thread the lines carefully to avoid violating Washington's redlines.  
  • China and Russia found ways to bypass US sanctions and strengthen their economic ties. 
  1. They found willing intermediaries who would facilitate trade between them. 
  2. Beijing and Moscow strengthened the required basic infrastructure to facilitate energy transport from a third country. 
  3. China and Russia also designated specialized banks that are immune to US sanctions and relied on shell companies to continue financial flows. 
  • Although the US threatened to sanction Beijing and most of China businesses complied with US requests, it has limited impact in stopping China-Russia trade. 
 
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