作者/Author(s): Scott Kennedy 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Policy 

日期/Date: 06/03/2024 

關鍵字/Keywords: 經濟 


摘要：
中國經濟在結束COVID-19封鎖後仍然停滯不前。在2024年初因為出口驅動了當前的緩慢增長，情況稍微有所改善，而國內企業則在努力恢復到以前的高度。中國當前的經濟困境是因為經濟管理不善、過度強調意識形態以及與西方的外交緊張局勢所導致，這些因素引發了消費者和企業的恐懼。雖然有這些跡象，但為什麼習近平沒有調整他的政策？ 
  • 習近平可能無法準確了解中國經濟的真實情況，因為他的下屬害怕說出衰退的真相會受到懲罰。 
  • 即使他的下屬能提供準確的資訊，習近平可能也不知道如何處理這些問題。此外，在一個高度集中的政府中，他的高層缺乏領導中央政府的經驗，反應遲緩。 
  • 另一種假設是，習近平不關心經濟狀況，只專注於鞏固權力和推進他的政治野心。因此，習近平只關注安全和政治問題。 
  • 最後一個論點是，習近平及其領導層不同意對其他國家中國經濟的負面評估。事實上，中國在幾個領先技術領域佔據主導地位，領導層認為這些技術有助於應對中國當前的經濟挑戰，確信他們是走在正確的道路上。然而，也有人認為，習近平政府在不改變產業政策的情況下，對未來技術賭注過大是一大敗筆，可能會加劇其他問題。 
  • 如果第一種和第二種評價是正確的，那麼中國目前的政策就會導致意想不到的錯誤。習近平政府需要更好、更準確的資訊來制定有效計劃，解決當前的經濟問題。 
  • 如果第三和第四種觀點是正確的，那麼中國目前的計劃就是有意為之，任何其他經濟評估或戰略都無關緊要。然而，如果中共內部不滿的派系試圖推翻領導層，或西方給予北京一個良好的國際商業和地緣政治環境，習政府可能會改變政策。專家們認為後者不太可能發生，因為習近平不會按照西方的期望調整自己的行為，他要對中國實施全面控制。 
 
Summary: 
China's economy stagnated even after ending the COVID-19 lockdown. Although there are some improvements in early 2024, exports drive the current slow growth while domestic businesses are struggling to recover to their previous heights. China's current economic struggles resulted from economic mismanagement, overemphasis on ideology, and diplomatic tensions with the West, driving fear among consumers and businesses. Despite the indicators, why did Xi not revise his policies? 
  • Xi may not comprehend the accurate situation of the Chinese economy because his underlings fear being punished for giving bad but real observations. 
  • Although his men could provide accurate information, Xi may not know how to handle the problems. Further, amid a centralized government, his top leaders lack central government experience and are slow to react. 
  • Another hypothesis is that Xi does not care about the economic situation, focusing only on consolidating power and advancing his political ambitions. Therefore, Xi only concentrates on security and political issues. 
  • The last argument is that Xi and his leadership disagree with the evaluation of the Chinese economy and that the current policies are incorrect or incapable. Indeed, China dominated several leading technologies, making the leaders believe they are useful in addressing China's current economic challenges and are heading in the right direction. Yet, some believe the Xi administration made the wrong move by gambling too much on future technologies without changing its industrial policies which would exacerbate other problems. 
  • If the first and second assessments are correct, China's current policies result in unintended mistakes. Xi's administration would need better, more accurate information to derive effective plans to solve current economic problems. 
  • If the third and fourth arguments are correct, China's current plans are intentional, and any other economic assessments or strategies do not matter. However, the administration could change its policy if dissatisfied factions within the CCP try to upend the leadership or the West gives Beijing a benign international business and geopolitical environment. Yet, experts believe the latter is unlikely because Xi would not adjust his behavior according to the West's expectations and is determined to obtain total control over China. 
 
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