作者/Author(s): Dmitir Alperovitch 

網站來源/Source: War on the Rocks 

日期/Date:06/05/2024 

關鍵字/Keywords: 經濟

摘要：

在「聯合利劍—2024A」演習之後，中國對台灣實施經濟封鎖的可能性變得更大。然而中國的經濟封鎖可能失敗，能導致一場不可避免的戰爭，甚至導致整個中國的衰敗。 

  • 隨著台灣的政治環境對北京越來越不利，中國可能會實施經濟封鎖，逼迫台灣就範。
  • 然而中國的經濟封鎖可能會失敗，原因如下：  
  1. 中國在關鍵技術方面嚴重依賴台灣，他們沒有把握能獲得這些技術，並在本土生產。台灣可以立即中止向中國運送尖端半導體，轉而供應其他買家，打擊中國經濟。此外台灣也可能攻擊附近的主要航運港口，對中國進行反封鎖。
  2. 美國和日本將針對台海進行軍事干預，幫助台灣脫離封鎖，這將緊張局勢升級為軍事衝突。中國可能會捲入一場代價高昂且無法取勝的海空戰爭。 
  3. 中國的封鎖將迫使國際社會重新評估台灣的主權問題，有望推動國際正式承認台灣的獨立，並放棄「一個中國」政策。 
  • 台灣可能成功在經濟封鎖中生存： 
  1. ​​​​​​​雖然台灣進口大量糧食，但農業部門十分發達，可以滿足人民的日常需求。 
  2. 台灣的能源生產主要依賴外國資源。而中國本土擁有太陽能、風能、水能和核能發電廠，可以減輕化石燃料封鎖的影響。 
  3. 中國政府可能會認為經濟封鎖不一定成功，因為歷史上沒有經濟封鎖導致政府政治投降的先例。
  4. 中國的灰色地帶行動無法有效實現其目標，還可能引發美國的報復。此外，台灣當前的政治現實表明，台灣人不會接受北京政府的任何統治。 
  • ​​​​​​​總而言之，中國對台灣的經濟封鎖很可能會失敗，台灣和美國將打破封鎖，並導致大規模且代價高昂的軍事衝突。 
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Summary: 
The possibility of a Chinese economic blockade on Taiwan became higher after the Joint Sword 2024A operation. However, not only China's economic blockade may fail, but it may also lead to an inevitable war and even its own defeat. 
  • As the political climate in Taiwan becomes more unfavorable for Beijing, China may implement an economic blockade to coerce Taiwan into submission. 
  • However, a Chinese economic blockade may fail for the following reasons: 
  1. ​​​​​​​China relied heavily on Taiwan for critical technologies and could not secure its access to these technologies or produce them indigenously. Taiwan could immediately stop all shipments of advanced semiconductors to China while diverting supplies to other buyers, hurting China's economy. Further, Taiwan may launch a counter-blockade against China by attacking major shipping ports within its proximity. 
  2. The US and Japan would intervene militarily to free Taiwan from the blockade, escalating the tension into a military conflict. China may end up fighting a costly naval and air war that it could not win. 
  3. The US and Japan would intervene militarily to free Taiwan from the blockade, escalating the tension into a military conflict. China may end up fighting a costly naval and air war that it could not win. 
  • Taiwan may survive an economic blockade: ​​​​​​​
  1. Although Taiwan imports much food, it has a robust agricultural sector that can sustain the daily needs of its people. 
  2. Taiwan relied mainly on foreign sources for energy generation. However, China has native solar, wind, hydro, and nuclear power plants, allowing it to mitigate the effects of a blockade of fossil fuel. 
  3. Beijing could be convinced that an economic blockade may fail because there is no historical precedence that an economic blockade would lead to a political capitulation of a government. 
  4. China's gray-zone operations are ineffective in achieving its aim and may provoke retaliation from the US. Further, the current political realities in Taiwan show that the Taiwanese would not accept any rule by the Beijing government. ​​​​​​​
  • In the end, China's economic blockade on Taiwan would most probably fail because Taiwan and the US could break the stranglehold and it would lead to a large-scale and costly military conflict. 
 
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