作者/Author(s): Chester Crocker 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Policy 

日期/Date: 05/24/2024 

關鍵字/Keywords: 民主

摘要：

專制政權締造和平的三種模式  

  • 第一種模式是支持現有政權或內戰中可能獲勝的一方，讓其成為威權和平推動者的可靠夥伴。 
  1. 例如，俄羅斯對敘利亞城市進行地毯式轟炸，幫助當地專制政權獲勝，實現冷和平。 
  • 第二種模式是脅迫對手或競爭國家來支持另一派別。 ​​​​​​​
  1. 利比亞就是由不同國際陣營支持的兩個不同派別對抗中，兩方之間的商業、戰略和意識形態阻礙各國從中調解和建立新治理的機會與努力。 ​​​​​​​
  • 第三種模式是專制國家利用軍事和政治支持，在與對手外部勢力競爭的同時，最大化對自己有利的結果，最終加劇局勢或引發與其他國家的衝突。 ​​​​​​​
  1. 蘇丹內戰是由兩個不同陣營支持兩個不同的對立派別主導，這不僅削弱了國際組織促進和平的潛力，在一些國家擁有否決權的情況下，此舉無異是分裂了國際組織內部成員。 
對美國的影響 
  • 威權國家締造和平的作法似乎將全面和平倡議置於國家戰略交換與協商的能力之上，削弱了美國和西方的硬實力和軟實力。 
  • 美國應仔細研究和平案例，改革其塑造區域和平的方法，甚至可能要在明顯缺乏原則的情況下與專制政權合作。 ​​​​​​​
  1. ​​​​​​​然而，美國通過與威權政府合作，成功在巴爾幹半島和哥倫比亞促成了和平。 
Summary: 
Three Models of Authoritarian Peacemaking 
  • The first model is to support the existing regime or the possible winner in a civil war that could be a reliable partner to the authoritarian peacemaker.
  1. ​​​​​​​For instance in Syria, Russia carpet-bombed cities to help local authoritarians win and enforce a cold peace. 
  • The second model is to back a factional side by coercing an adversary or rival state. ​​​​​​​
  1. In Libya, commercial, strategic, and ideological agendas between two different factions supported by two different international camps impede efforts to reconcile and create a new governance. ​​​​​​​
  • In the third model, authoritarian states maximize the favorable outcomes for themselves while competing with rival external powers through military and political support, exacerbating the situation or generating conflicts with other states. ​​​​​​​
  1. In the Sudanese Civil War, two different camps supported two different rival factions. It not only undermines the potential of international organizations to foster peacemaking, but it also divides members within the international organization, especially when some countries have veto powers. 
Implications to the US 
  • Authoritarian peacemaking seems to erode the US and the West's hard and soft power by putting comprehensive peacemaking initiatives against transactional statecraft. 
  • The US should scrutinize peacemaking cases to reform its peacemaking strategies or even work with authoritarian regimes despite the evident lack of principles. ​​​​​​​
  1. However, the US managed to foster peace in Balkan and Colombia by working with authoritarian governments. 

 
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