作者/Author(s): Chester Crocker 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Policy 

日期/Date: 05/24/2024 

關鍵字/Keywords: 民主


摘要：
專制政權在參與外部衝突時，通常傾向於直接干預或支持志同道合的政權，以暫停衝突或塑造想要的結果。過去的專制政權不會在沒有取得重大成果的情況下參與其他國家的和平調解，但這一趨勢正在發生變化，越來越多的專制政權參與其他區域的調解和衝突管理。

專制政權建立和平  
  • 專制政權似乎正破壞西方建立和平的努力與領導作用，這直接體現於聯合國安理會僵局中，強權競合限制了聯合國或相關非政府組織管理衝突、調解或促進和平的能力。 
  • 專制政權參與和平的趨勢與全球對西方干涉政策的不滿一致，削弱了現任政權的合法性和權威。 
  • 美國在處理俄烏危機和以哈戰爭中的人權和平民保護問題時存在雙標問題，削弱了美國的軟實力，在全球權利和治理準則領域也失去人們的信任。 
  • 然而，專制締造和平可能不是那麼有效或連貫。在某些情況下，它甚至還會加劇問題。 
  • 專制締造和平具有內部支持和國內政策一致性的優勢。除了實現穩定之外，專制政權建立和平的目的也是想要創造有利的環境，以推進政權或交易性利益。目前主要有三種威權建立和平的成功模式。
Summary: 
Authoritarian regimes tend to choose sides in external conflicts through direct intervention or supporting like-minded regimes to pause a conflict or shape possible outcomes. Usually, authoritarian regimes would not be involved in peacemaking efforts without significant results, but the trend is changing nowadays with an increasing number of authoritarian regimes engaging in mediation and conflict management.  

Authoritarian Peacemaking 
  • Authoritarian regimes are seemingly undermining Western peacemaking efforts or leadership. Their actions are most evident in the impasse of the UN Security Council, constraining the UN's or relevant NGOs' ability to manage conflict, mediate, or foster peace. 
  • The rise of authoritarian peacemaking is consistent with the global resentment against intrusive and interventionist Western policies that weaken the legitimacy and authority of incumbent regimes. 
  • The US double standard in managing the human rights and civilian protection aspects of the Ukrainian Crisis and the Israel-Hamas War further reduces the US soft power and discredits the global norms relating to rights and governance. 
  • However, authoritarian peacemaking may not be effective or coherent. In some cases, it exacerbates the problems. 
  • Authoritarian peacemaking has the advantage of internal support and domestic policy coherence. Apart from achieving stability, authoritarian regimes engage in peacemaking to create a favorable environment for advancing regime interests or attaining transactional benefits. There are three models for authoritarian peacemaking to succeed. 
 
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