作者/Author(s): Evan S. Medeiros 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Affairs 

日期/Date: 04/24/2024 

關鍵字/Keywords: 國際秩序


摘要：
習近平並未因中國內部困境而退縮，而是積極推動中國在全球舞台上扮演更大的角色。 
  • 中國積極創建西方國際自由秩序的替代方案，例如擴大金磚國家合作。中國還小心翼翼地在歐洲和中東危機中擺正自己的立場，以避免西方制裁，同時展示中國作為一個負責任的全球利益相關者。 
  • 中國還宣布了三項倡議，旨在挑戰美國的主導地位和西方規則，鞏固中國的國家利益。
  • 雖然習近平面臨重大障礙，但只對其政策進行了小幅度的修改，此舉令外國投資者感到擔憂。習近平僅做出戰術性調整，以穩定中國實現長期目標的道路 。
  • 在經歷了一些動盪事件後，習近平成功穩定中國與一些西方國家的關鍵外交關係，同時保持對俄羅斯的戰略承諾 。
  • 相信中國已經達到頂峰的說法是危險的： 
  1. 很難測量和理解「巔峰中國」的定義 
  2. 中國在某些方面可能達到了頂峰，但其他方面還在進步，因此很難計算。 
  3. 中國的經濟關係網路、與美國對手的密切關係以及在跨國挑戰中的存在，成就了如今中國的外交實力。 
  4. 雖然中國經濟增長放緩，但作為第二大經濟體的地位以及與世界其他國家的深厚關係，讓中國能夠塑造國際規範並削弱美國的影響力。 
  • 西方應該了解中國領導人如何看待他們的國家和野心，而不是將自己的恐懼和希望投射到中國上。西方若對中國抱有錯誤的理解，將使政策制定變得複雜，忽視中國對自身的影響與後果。 
Summary: 
Instead of withdrawing due to domestic predicaments, Xi is actively promoting China for a bigger role on the global stage. 
  • China is proactive in creating alternatives to the Western international liberal order, such as expanding the BRICS. China also carefully navigates its positions in the European and Middle East crises to avoid Western sanctions while showing China as a responsible global stakeholder.
  • China also announced three initiatives aiming to challenge the US's preeminence and Western norms and consolidate its national interests. 
  • Xi only made minor modifications to his policies despite facing major obstructions, worrying foreign investors. Xi only made tactical adjustments to smooth China's path to its long-term goals. 
  • Xi also stabilized key diplomatic relations with some Western countries after some tumultuous incidents while maintaining his strategic commitments to Russia. 
  • It is dangerous to presume China has peaked: ​​​​​​​
  1. It is difficult to measure and understand the definition of a "peak China." 
  2. China could be peaking in some aspects but advancing in others, complicating the calculation. 
  3. China's diplomatic power is accomplished due to its network of economic ties, close relations with US adversaries, and presence in transnational challenges. 
  4. Despite a slowing economy, China's position as the second-largest economy and profound ties with the rest of the world allow it to shape international norms and erode US influence. ​​​​​​​
  • The West should understand how Chinese leaders view their country and ambitions, not projecting their fears and hopes onto China. The West would complicate policymaking or ignore the consequences to itself with an incorrect assumption. 
 
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