作者/Author(s): Evan S. Medeiros
網站來源/Source: Foreign Affairs
日期/Date: 04/24/2024
關鍵字/Keywords: 國際秩序
摘要：
自 2022 年以來，習近平在國內和國際上遇到了重重阻礙，學者和政策制定者推斷中國的國力已經達到頂峰。但是習近平認為中國還在崛起，因此致力於實現他的中華民族偉大復興之夢。同時，雖然中國的發展腳步趨緩，但習近平和中國學者預計美國正在衰落，相比之下現今的發展軌跡更有利於中國。 雖然中國目前正面對困境，習近平不會為了保護中共的合法性而暴露自己的弱點，也不會將其打造成通往偉大航道的必經之路。在地球村時代中，「中國峰值論 」很容易受到挑戰，因為各國擁有多樣化的權力來源和利用方式。即使中國的實力達到頂峰，世界也不會意識到這一點，中國也可能給美國和其他國家帶來問題。
- 從習近平在國內外各種場合的公開演說中可以看出，他對中國的前景和未來有著清晰的定義。習近平和中國共產黨堅持認為，中國仍處於「戰略機遇期」，而西方正面臨衰落。中國的野心是由受害者意識、不滿情緒和權利意識共同驅動的，他們將中國的西化視為生存危險，所以將國家安全和經濟發展放在首位。
- 習近平與前面幾位領導人最大的不同之一在於他鞏固了中國共產黨領導下的中國政治和經濟決策，赦免了中共和政府機構的反對派或腐敗官員。
- 與 「中國峰值論 」者的觀點不同，習近平在制定經濟政策時立場堅定。他要讓中國走上自給自足的道路，從房地產撤資，改投資尖端產業。這表明，習近平不僅對中國當前的經濟挑戰游刃有餘，而且還以奮鬥和犧牲的精神推動中國經濟變得更強大、更永續。
Summary:
Scholars and policymakers deduced China's power had peaked after Xi faced several domestic and international obstacles since 2022. However, Xi believes China is still rising and is committed to realizing his national rejuvenation goals. Instead, Xi and Chinese scholars anticipate the US is in decline and the trajectory favors China despite China's slowing down. Although China is currently struggling, Xi would not expose his weaknesses to protect the CCP's legitimacy or brand it as a necessary path to greatness. In an interconnected world, the peak China theory could be easily challenged because states have diversified power sources and ways to leverage them. Even if China's power peaked, the world would not realize it and it could also pose problems to the US and the rest.
- Xi was clear in defining China's prospects and its future, showed by his public remarks on various domestic and international occasions. Xi and the CCP also maintained that China still enjoys a "period of strategic opportunity" while the West is facing a decline. Their ambitions are driven by a combination of victimhood, grievance, and entitlement, where they see the Westernization of China as a danger to China's survival, making them prioritize both national security and economic development.
- Unlike his predecessors, Xi consolidated Chinese political and economic policymaking under the CCP. Xi also exonerated opposition and corrupt officers from the CCP and government bodies. Xi also increased the CCP's power to monitor and repress potential domestic and foreign foes.
- Unlike what peak China theorists suggested, Xi is adamant in his economic policymaking. He put China on a path to self-sufficiency, divesting real estate investments, and investing in frontier industries. It shows that Xi is not only comfortable with China's current economic challenges, he is also promoting it under the spirit of struggle and sacrifice to be stronger and more sustainable.