CSIS: 美光科技遭中國禁令：對北京禁止美國半導體公司的正確回應



作者：Matthew Reynolds
來源：Center for Strategic & International Studies
日期：Jul 22, 2023

摘要：
中國的中央網信辦與國家網信辦(CAC)是一個機構兩塊招牌，其限制當地產業使用美國半導體公司美光科技的產品，以報復華盛頓當局限制出口尖端半導體到中國的政策。仔細觀察，中國主要目的是想讓美國建立切斷中國重要半導體技術聯盟的過程與成本更加複雜。但目前其實也只有日本與荷蘭跟進，美光的韓國競爭對手，三星和SK海力士尚未跟進此政策。

美國的出口管制和韓國的困境

  • 三星和SK海力士在中國擁有主要市場份額和生產設施，他們正在準備填補美光留下的空缺，但美國阻止了他們填補美光空缺的行為。
  • 一些美國政策制定者甚至發出了想要使用治外法權來確保韓國服從美國的要求之信號。
  • 這意味著美國正在要求韓國承擔更大的成本，使其半導體政策與美國一致，而韓國已經不願承受美國出口管制帶來的損失。

美國與韓國的樂觀前景

  • 中國對美光的禁令更多是一種象徵性的舉動，不會給美光帶來太大的損失。因此，這可能不足以引起華盛頓和首爾之間的緊張關係。
  • 美光產生的空缺很小，美國可能會允許韓國企業填補這個空缺，以換取韓國支持更重要的對中議題。
  • 這個禁令反而可能對中國有害，因為它與中國開放外國業務的敘述相矛盾。而且，如果美國的盟友已經失去了中國的市場准入，他們可能會願意跟隨美國的步伐。
  • 美國應該保持冷靜，專注於中國對外國企業的強制性做法，同時保持對韓國的外交銜接，以使其符合美國的出口管制措施。
 
Summary：
China's Cyberspace Administration (CAC) restricted local industries from using products from Micron Technology, a US semiconductor firm, as retaliation against Washington's export control of advanced semiconductor technologies to China. On closer inspection, China's primary objective is to complicate US's effort to build a coalition that cut China off from critical semiconductor technologies. While Japan and the Netherlands complied with US's export controls, Micron's South Korean competitors, Samsung and SK Hynix, have yet to follow suit.

US's Export Controls and South Korea's Dilemma

  • Samsung and SK Hynix have a major market share and production facilities in China and are ready to backfill the gap left by Micron, but the US requested them to prevent backfilling Micron's void.

  • Some US policymakers even signaled using extraterritorial laws to ensure South Korea obeyed US's demands.

  • It means the US is asking South Korea to bear greater costs to align its semiconductor policies with the US when it is already reluctant to sustain the losses from US's export controls.

Optimistic Outlook for the US and South Korea

  • China's Micron ban is more of a symbolic action and will not incur much loss for Micron. Thus, it may not be major enough to cause tensions between Washington and Seoul.

  • The gap left by Micron is small, and the US may allow South Korean firms to backfill in exchange for larger support on major China policies.

  • The ban may be detrimental to China because it contradicts China's narrative of opening for foreign business. US allies may be willing to follow US's steps if they are already losing Chinese market access.

  • The US should stay calm and focus on Chinese coercive practices on foreign firms while preserving diplomatic instruments needed to align South Korea to its export control measures.

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