The US has a US$19 billion backlog of weapons delivery to Taiwan. This issue raised concerns because it shows the US defense industrial base is unprepared for a great power war and may not simultaneously deal with a threat from Russia in Ukraine and China in the Taiwan Strait. Taiwan is a key security interest for the US, but cutting aid to Ukraine will not solve the real problem. Instead, the US should redirect weapons transfer from the Middle East to Taiwan and invest in Taiwan for defense co-production.

Not Ukraine's Fault

• Taiwan's weapons backlog happened before the Ukrainian crisis, and Ukraine received old US weapons from the 2023 National Defense Authorization Act, not foreign military sales that sell new weapons to Taiwan.
• Taiwan has competed with large buyers in the Middle East in foreign military sales. These countries hauled up most systems Taiwan needs and exceeded those provisioned to Ukraine. Diverting some of the production capacity dedicated to the Middle East would have increased Taiwan's weapons stockpile.
• Ukraine and Taiwan do not need the same systems and have different battlefield demands that rarely overlap. Ukraine is fighting a war of attrition on land with short-range artillery and air defenses. Taiwan faces air and maritime threats requiring more long-range missiles and anti-air and ship capabilities.
• Taiwan may compete with Ukraine over new weapon systems as US stockpiles are depleting. However, the quantities are low and will not cause delays in weapons transfer to Taiwan.
• Although Middle Eastern buyers have security concerns, their dangers are less acute, and the systems purchased are not well-matched to the threats they face. Further, arms transfer to the Middle East fueled greater conflict rather than brokering peace and resulted in human rights violations.

Investing in Taiwan's Defense Sector

• Reprioritizing arms transfer to Taiwan can address its short-term needs. The US can help Taiwan manage medium- and long-term needs by investing in Taiwan's defense industry, co-production, and technology transfer to boost its indigenous weapons production.
• Taiwan's indigenous defense industry has proven records in developing and producing air defense systems and missiles. Investing in Taiwan's defense industry can increase Taiwan's resilience to rearm in case of a Chinese blockade or US resupply is hindered.