Parameters：覆巢之下無全卵：嚇阻中國侵台(第三部分) 

作者/Author(s): Jared M. McKinney and Peter Harris 

原文來源/Source: The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters Vol. 51, No. 4 

日期/Date: Winter 2021 

主題/Key Topics: Deterrence Strategy, Defense 

​​​摘要：

降低中國的克制成本  

  • 統一台灣是中共根深蒂固的目標。因此，即使中國知道要付出多少代價，他們仍可能選擇入侵台灣。 
  • 然而，中國還是有其他核心利益，如果他們成功入侵台灣，那將會受到懲罰，導致他們很難獲得其他利益。 
  • 除了提高中國入侵的成本外，美國必須降低讓中國自我克制的成本。 
  1. 美國必須明確地表達其在台灣未定地位問題上的立場，讓中國知道美國無意支持台獨。 
  2. 美國必須向中國承諾，它不會使用灰色地帶戰略來改變現狀。 
  3. 美國必須堅定地反對任何強行解決台灣問題的做法。 ​​​​​​​
  • 懲罰性威懾戰略減少了美軍在東亞部署的必要性。然而，美國需要向其地區盟友保證其對集體防禦的承諾，並維持台灣海峽的現狀。 
  • 將威懾從軍事報復轉向非軍事懲罰，也可以減少因誤判而引發戰爭的可能性，並證明中國的軍事集結不是為了應對美國和台灣的挑釁。 
注意事項 
  • 如果美國決定減少其在東亞地區的軍事態勢，他們必須就美國防衛前線部署的水準和類型與其夥伴進行協調，以安撫其盟友並降低戰爭的可能性。 
  • 如果台灣認為美國不會干預並保護台灣，那麼他們可能會因此而放棄對中國的抵抗。
Summary: 
Reducing the Cost of Restraint for China 
  • Taiwan's reunification is a deep-rooted goal of the CCP. Therefore, China may still invade Taiwan despite knowing the costs. 
  • However, China has other core interests, which are hard to realize if it successfully invades Taiwan and is punished for its actions. 
  • Apart from raising the cost of a Chinese invasion, the US must alleviate China's cost of restraint.
  1. ​​​​​​​The US must be clear in its position on Taiwan's undetermined status and has no plans to support Taiwan's independence. 
  2. The US must promise China that it will not use gray-zone tactics to change the status quo. 
  3. The US must staunchly oppose any forced resolution to the Taiwan issue. 
  • The deterrence-by-punishment strategy reduces the need for US military deployment in East Asia. However, it needs to reassure its regional allies of its commitment to collective defense and maintain the status quo of the Taiwan Strait. 
  • Shifting deterrence from military retaliation to non-military punishment can also reduce the possibility of war arising from miscalculation and prove China's military buildup is not a response to US and Taiwan's provocations. 
Caveats: 
  • If the US decides to reduce its military posture in the region, it must coordinate with its partner regarding the level and type of US forward deployment to reassure its allies and reduce the likelihood of war. 
  • Taiwan might be discouraged from mounting resistance against China if it believes the US will not intervene on its behalf.  
 
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