編輯器

Brookings: 烏克蘭危機提供了中國檢驗其戰略前景的機會

圖/中國國家主席習近平 (取自美國聯合通訊社) 

 

 

作者/Author(s):Ryan Hass
原文來源/Source:布魯金斯學會 Brooking Institution
日期/Date:03/01/2022
主題/Key Topics:Grand Strategy

 

摘要：

中國和俄羅斯對於民主思想體系都有著相似程度的厭惡。不過，由於中國並沒有公開支持俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭，究竟她們是否仍有相似的利益，仍待商榷。有見及此，為防止因壓力令中國及俄羅斯組成威權主義軸心，與其直接對抗，美國政府決定以外交試探中國與俄羅斯之間的親密度，查探一下究竟她們只是在思想上還是在利益上有。


阻止中國過多地支持俄羅斯：

  • 警告中國，長期的支持俄羅斯會產生更多影響。 
  • 中國和俄羅斯在國際體制上有不同的地位跟利益，而俄羅斯雖然正在衰落，但仍想根據自己的規則改寫國際的體系。相反，中國認為自己是一個正在崛起的大國，所以希望修改國際體系以更好地適應其願景和價值觀。 
  • 如果美國和歐盟將中國視為是像俄羅斯一樣的敵人，中國的目標將會受到阻礙。 
  • 中國的技術發展仍需要西方的幫助。 
  • 如果中國表現出其對俄羅斯的支援，那麼美國將會更加努力的支持台灣。 

 

仍有機會將中俄關係拉遠，但這也不意味著中國需要向美國靠攏。中國反而可以依照其利益行事，而不是被綑綁在與俄羅斯共享相同的意識形態價值上。 

 

Summary: 

China and Russia share a similar loathe towards the democratic ideology. However, whether they share similar interest remains to be seen since China did not show public support for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Washington needs to test China’s intimacy with Russia was purely ideological or interest-driven to prevent China from forming an axis of authoritarianism with Russia if being pushed too hard. Therefore, it is safer to test China diplomatically instead of confronting directly. 

China can be stopped from supporting Russia too much: 

  • Warn China about the long-term repercussions of supporting Russia.  
  • China and Russia have different positions and interests in the international system. Russia is declining but wants to rewrite the international system according to its rules. Conversely, China perceives itself as a rising power and intends to revise the international system to accommodate its visions and values better.  
  • China’s aim will be impeded if the US and the EU view it as an enemy like Russia. 
  • China needs the West's assistance for its technological development. 
  • The US will support Taiwan harder if China shows its support for Russia. 

There are still chances to divert China away from Russia, which does not mean China needs to be pushed closer to the US. Instead, China can act according to its interest rather than being tied with sharing the same ideological value as Russia.  

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