FA: 當貿易成為戰爭的起因 (Part 2: 俄羅斯) 

作者/Author(s): Dale C. Copeland 

原文來源/Source: Foreign Affairs 

日期/Date: 08/23/2022 

主題/Key Topics: Economic, War, IR Theory 

摘要:

本節討論俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭的經濟相互依存邏輯。大多數人認為，俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭是為了阻止烏克蘭加入北約，並實現普丁復興俄羅斯帝國的願景。但是，從經濟相互依存的觀點來看，俄羅斯可以利用歐盟對俄羅斯天然氣的高度依賴來獲取更多成功的機會，同時他們也將面臨來自烏克蘭的經濟威脅。 

歐洲高度依賴俄羅斯為工業和家庭提供天然氣。因此，歐盟對其施加的阻力將減少。 

  • 雖然俄羅斯經濟也高度依賴天然氣出口賺錢，但其中斷向歐盟輸送天然氣，導致天然氣供應下降，價格飆升，而俄羅斯的天然氣收入也受到輕微影響。 
  • 在俄羅斯吞併克里米亞之後，歐盟仍繼續購買俄羅斯天然氣。這給普丁一種感覺—他可以憑藉自認為的強大軍事力量取得對烏行動的成功。 

烏克蘭透過經濟能力威脅俄羅斯。 

  • 烏克蘭政府於2010年在烏克蘭東部發現了大量的天然氣，並致力於吸引西方的外國投資者來開發這些氣田。 
  • 俄羅斯最重要的天然氣管道之一穿過烏克蘭。如果烏克蘭天然氣田開發成功，那麼他們也可以生產供其消費的天然氣，並向歐盟出口天然氣。 
  • 這將對俄羅斯產生嚴重後果 
  1. 俄羅斯失去烏克蘭和歐盟的天然氣市場。 
  2. 烏克蘭可以與歐盟和北約建立更密切的關係，損害俄羅斯的長期政治和經濟實力。 
 

綜上所述，俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭凸顯了普丁對澤倫斯基深化與西方關係並威脅俄羅斯長期經濟實力的行動感到不滿。 

 
 

 

第一部分：理論部分 

第三部分：中國 

第四部分：給全球的啟示
 

Summary: 

This section discusses the economic interdependence logic for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Most agreed that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO and to realize Putin’s legacy of reviving the Russian empire. However, from the economic interdependence logic, Russia can exploit the EU’s high dependence on Russia’s gas to succeed, but it also faces an economic threat from Ukraine. 

Europe is more dependent on Russia for natural gas for industry and households. Thus, there will be less resistance from the EU.

  • Although the Russian economy depends on gas sales heavily, disruption in natural gas transmission to the EU reduces the supply and inflates the price, while Russia’s gas incomes suffer marginally. 
  • The EU’s continued to buy Russian gas even after the Russian annexation of Crimea. It gave Putin the impression that he could succeed in Ukraine with his self-perceived strong military. 
Ukraine economically threatens Russia. 
  • The Ukrainian government found massive natural gas deposits in Eastern Ukraine in 2010 and attracted Western foreign investors to develop the gas fields. 
  • One of Russia’s most important gas pipelines runs through Ukraine. If the development succeeds, Ukraine can produce gas for its consumption and export gas to the EU. 
  • The consequences for Russia: ​​​​​​​
  1. Russia loses the gas market of Ukraine and the EU. 
  2. Ukraine can have close relations with the EU and NATO, harming Russia’s long-term political and economic power. 
In sum, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine signifies Putin’s displeasure with Zelensky’s actions to deepen relations with the West and threaten Russia’s long-term economic power. 
 

Part 1: Theory 

Part 3: China 

Part 4: The Lessons ​​​​​​​

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